Conference Shake ups

[fischer]

Now multiple outlets are reporting that FSU and Clemson have been offered by the Big12.

No one is saying they're staying or going, just confirming the conversations through "sources."

I've seen it on at least three sites from mods, so its not necessarily the most accurate, but mods are usually more "in" than a lot of sportswriters for their particular teams.

A lot of people are VERY disappointed with the ACC tv contract.

[Ticket Mouse]

Yes, it was a windy day when Finch kicked the sand over the notion.

The head of the board of trustee's said they'd been stupid not to see what the B12 has to offer and said they are unanimously in favor of exploring a move. Granted, his term is up and will be leaving soon but if that is his sentiment then it's probably held by most in the BOTs.

Jimbo Fisher said if moving to the Big 12 is best for FSU then that's what they need to do.

FSU is having some money troubles and the B12 appears to offer them a solution. I've seen things that say they'll have to cut 2.5M from the athletic budget for 2012-13 and the stadium is in need of some severe upgrades.

About the ACC contract, nothing is set in stone yet but the presidents have reportedly agreed in principal to defer their 3rd tier rights for football to ESPN but keep the same basketball rights. FSU sees this as UNC and Duke moving the conference more and more to a basketball dominated conference, which it already is. In the B12, FSU can maintain their rights and sell them at their disposal. The ACC contract is backloaded which means the additional 5M a year they'll reportedly receive won't happen until 2021 or so.

The B12 will offer somewhere around 20M a year and the conference will surely help in paying their exit fee, like they did with WVU. I have heard that the money from the four defectees can be used to help pay for any teams' exits. Also, the B12 schools have verbally agreed to defer their 3rd tier rights to the conference for the next 13 years should a school depart; meaning, say Texas leaves the B12 next year, all the money they receive from the televising of non-conference games and any conference games not picked up by ESPN or Fox would go back to the conference for the next 12 years. That's a huge move towards stability. The agreement won't be official until the contract deal is signed. I'm still worried that TU could resort back to their old tricks and screw the whole deal but it appears that they are starting to learn how to live and survive in the 21st century of college athletics.

For a program that's cash-strapped and is in huge need of facility upgrades, FSU needs to look long and hard at what the Big XII has to offer. They are falling further and further behind Florida and the current state of the ACC doesn't afford them much opportunity to make up any ground.

[Ticket Mouse]

One more thing, it would appear that ESPN is at least partially spearheading this campaign. Yes, they would be taking away from a conference they completely control (ACC) and helping a conference they share with Fox but it would open the door for the Big East to become a basketball only conference and that is one less football contract to pay for.

If FSU and Clemson leave it would open the door for the SEC to take NCST and VT. GT and Miami may also be part of the B12 movement but that won't happen until after the FSU shoe drops.

Maryland has been rumored as a target for the BIG as has Rutgers.

UCONN would love to be in the ACC but they have a BC problem. UCONN sued BC when they left for the ACC and there is a lot of bad blood between the schools. But it would make geographic sense and don't expect UCONN to stay in the BEast for very long. BC may not have much of a choice by the time that happens anyway if they want the conference to remain viable for football.

The ACC would become the new Big East. Now that I think all this through it makes perfect sense from a TV and money standpoint.

[fischer]

no, actually it doesn't.

The Big 12 currently has 2 schools that bring any eyeballs whatsoever to a tv set.

The ACC has about 6-8.

FSU isn't happy with the t.v. contract and that is the ONLY reason any of this would occur. The ACC is a far better football conference than the Big 12 is with the exodus of Neb, Mizzou, and A&M.

In the end, FSU will probably realize that the Big 12 is a sinking ship, and they'd have to get on their knees for texas at the snap of a finger. They'll probably just stick it out there in The ACC.

Either that, or just go to another conference when the SEC raids the ACC for Va. Tech and NC state. But there are a lot of hurdles to clear before that happens.

[fischer]

letter from FSU president to every FSU student and alum:

I want to assure you that any decision made about FSU athletics will be
reasoned and thoughtful and based on athletics, finances and academics.
Allow me to provide you with some of the issues we are facing:

In support of a move are four basic factors argued by many alumni:

1. The ACC is more basketball than it is football, and many of our alumni
view us as more football oriented than the ACC
2. The ACC is too North Carolina centric and the contract advantages
basketball and hence advantages the North Carolina schools
3. The Big 12 has some big football schools that match up with FSU
4. The Big 12 contract (which actually isn't signed yet) is rumored to be
$2.9M more per year than the ACC contract. We need this money to be
competitive.

But, in contrast:

1. The information presented about the ACC contract that initiated the
blogosphere discussion was not correct. The ACC is an equal share
conference and this applies to football and to basketball ­ there is no
preferential treatment of any university with the exception of 3rd tier
rights for women's basketball and Olympic sports. FSU is advantaged by
that aspect of the contract over the majority of other ACC schools.
2. Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M left the Big 12, at least in
part because the Big 12 is not an equal share conference. Texas has
considerably more resource avenues and gains a larger share (and I say
this as a former dean of the University of Texas at Austin - I watched the
Big 12 disintegration with interest). So, when fans realize that Texas
would get more dollars than FSU, always having a competitive advantage, it
would be interesting to see the fan reaction.
3. Much is being made of the extra $2.9M that the Big 12 contract (which
hasn't been inked yet) gets over the ACC contract. Given that the Texas
schools are expected to play each other (the Big 12 is at least as Texas
centered than the ACC is North Carolina centered), the most likely
scenario has FSU playing Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and West
Virginia on a recurring basis and the other teams sporadically (and one
more unnamed team has to join to allow the Big 12 to regain a championship
game), we realize that our sports teams can no longer travel by bus to
most games ­ the estimate is that the travel by plane required by FSU to
be in the Big 12 appears to exceed the $2.9M difference in the contract ­
actually giving us fewer dollars than we have now to be competitive with
the Big 12 teams, who obviously do not have to travel as far. Any
renegotiated amount depends not just on FSU but the caliber of any other
new team to the Big 12.
4. Few believe that the above teams will fill our stadium with fans of
these teams and so our lack of sales and ticket revenue would continue.
5. We would lose the rivalry with University of Miami that does fill our
stadium
6. It will cost between $20M and $25M to leave the ACC ­ we have no idea
where that money would come from. It would have to come from the Boosters
which currently are unable to support our current University athletic
budget, hence the 2% cut in that budget.
7. The faculty are adamantly opposed to joining a league that is
academically weaker ­ and in fact, many of them resent the fact that a 2%
($2.4M) deficit in the athletics budget receives so much attention from
concerned Seminoles, but the loss of 25% of the academic budget (105M)
gets none when it is the most critical concern of this University in terms
of its successful future.


I present these issues to you so that you realize that this is not so
simple (not to mention that negotiations aren't even taking place). One
of the few wise comments made in the blogosphere is that no one negotiates
their future in the media. We can't afford to have conference affiliation
be governed by emotion ­ it has to be based on a careful assessment of
athletics, finances and academics. I assure you that every aspect of
conference affiliation will be looked at by this institution, but it must
be a reasoned decision.

Eric Barron
President

[The River Assassin]

Damn, I'm guessing Dodds and his little minions are going to need therapy after reading what the FSU president said. I've said this from the beginning, but FSU will not join the Big 12. Read all the blogs, message boards, and sip mouth pieces you want, it isn't going to happen.

Cincinnati and Louisville, c'mon down, you are the next prestigious university's to be admitted to the Bevo 12 conference!!!

[fischer]

I tend to agree, I don't think they'll go either.

But this is more than "sip" mouth pieces. There is a lot of unrest at fsu. Much like there was at A&M last year. Only difference is that the big 12 isn't a good option like the sec was for us so they'll have to stay put.

I guarantee you there are some serious discussions taking place. It's not just website fodder.

[cowtownmike]

When will A&M hire Jeff Long from Arkansas? I figure now that he has decimated our football program, he'll be moving on.

[The River Assassin]

The sip mouth pieces part was mainly directed at all the tv contract talks. We've heard all these big numbers thrown around, and then just like the A&M buyout numbers they end up right around where everyone thought. Not to mention they are locked in for 13 years, at which point that deal will probably be the lowest in the nation.

All this other noise is based on what one BOT member said, and frankly was kind of a no brainer. It makes sense to look around and check out your options, but I'm guessing it didn't take long for them to realize the Big ?? is nothing more than a dumpster fire.

[The River Assassin]

May 14, 2012 17:08:33 GMT -5 cowtownmike said:

When will A&M hire Jeff Long from Arkansas? I figure now that he has decimated our football program, he'll be moving on.

HA!

I've actually heard his name kicked around on the message boards, not much coming from the university. I hate to say this but it's beginning to look like we know who may have had a hand in all the leaks from the AD.

[The River Assassin]

May 14, 2012 16:55:54 GMT -5 fischer said:

I guarantee you there are some serious discussions taking place. It's not just website fodder.

I'm guessing most of those conversations have already happened, and they probably didn't go well. Miami has already said they want nothing to do with the Big ??, and it doesn't sound like anyone else is real excited about them either. I'm sure FSU looked, and probably made a phone call or two, but at the end of the day realized the ACC is a far more stable and competitive conference than the Big ??.

[fischer]

Agree. There's no good option for them now.

[The River Assassin]

Realistically any school not in the Pac 12, Big 10, or SEC should be looking around right now. Those seem to be the only stable conferences, the rest are completely up in the air.

The ACC has a better overall tv footprint than the Big ??, but the Big ?? has tu and OU, so it's hard to determine which conference has the most value over the long haul.

I still think some four team combination of tu, OU, and TCU, BU, KU, OSU, tech end up heading west, but that may be 5-10 years down the road.

The big kicker in all of this is the four team playoff talk. The Big 10 and the Pac 12 are working together to make sure their own best interest are included. The SEC needs a partner to make sure that their best interest are protected. The only logical choice to me is the ACC.

I'm rambling right now, but my point is sometime soon college football won't be big enough for the ACC and the Big ??. One is going to have to go, my guess is the Big ?? when tu and OU decide to head west.

[Ticket Mouse]

May 14, 2012 13:08:36 GMT -5 fischer said:

no, actually it doesn't.

The Big 12 currently has 2 schools that bring any eyeballs whatsoever to a tv set.

The ACC has about 6-8.

FSU isn't happy with the t.v. contract and that is the ONLY reason any of this would occur. The ACC is a far better football conference than the Big 12 is with the exodus of Neb, Mizzou, and A&M.

In the end, FSU will probably realize that the Big 12 is a sinking ship, and they'd have to get on their knees for texas at the snap of a finger. They'll probably just stick it out there in The ACC.

Either that, or just go to another conference when the SEC raids the ACC for Va. Tech and NC state. But there are a lot of hurdles to clear before that happens.

All sorts of fail in this post. Who other than FSU, Clemson, and VT get people to watch ACC football? Miami is not the ratings bonanza it used to be. Most of their televised games were on ESPNU this past year. Who else? NCST and GT are the only other two who's fanbases give a rip about football but they don't bring a whole lot of eyeballs.

Of course the TV deal is the only reason this would happen! It's always been all about the money!

The ACC is a far better football conference? Did you watch the Orange Bowl? The B12 had 6 teams in the final AP 25 that will be members as of July 1, 2012. The ACC had three-VT, Clemson, and FSU; 21, 22, and 23 respectively. All three will probably be out of the conference within the next 2 years.

The ACC is 2-13 all-time in BCS games. Heck, even the Big East is 7-7.

Yesterday, Sully said he thought Snyder was better than Moreland. I told him if Fischer hadn't said the ACC is a better conference than the B12 that he may have said the dumbest thing I've heard all week.

Of the 4 teams that have left the B12, only Nebraska sniffed the final 25.

It's funny how Aggies try to argue against the Big XII. I think it galls them that the conference they help try to destoy still has a leg to stand on and may have a healthy future. You left to go to the best conference out there. Why do you care so much? Texags is filled with B12 hate. The Mizzou boards are filled with indifference. Quit living in the past Aggie. Look ahead to your bright and prosperous future. If FSU and Clemson get in, so what? You'll still be making more money than them and have every conceivable recruiting advantage except for results on the field.

[Ticket Mouse]

www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/19084239/sec-big-12-agree-to-bowl-matchup-if-left-out-of-fourteam-playoffs

I can think of few scenarios where this game would actually be played but it does hint at the superconference theory. The ACC can't be too happy with this.